Immigration slowdown and tariffs to blame
Oxford Economics now sees a Canadian recession as all but certain. While reduced tariffs between Canada and the U.S. offer some relief, steeper U.S. tariffs on other countries are expected to weigh on global demand, indirectly hurting Canadian exports and investment.
While Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on select U.S. goods have been paused, the broader economic fallout from global trade rifts remains front and centre. Oxford’s base-case scenario continues to anticipate a Canadian recession, despite the removal of retaliatory tariffs.
Immigration slowdown could weigh on long-term growth. “We think the long-term immigration trend will stabilize at just under 1% of the population annually,”
For borrowers and mortgage holders, the most immediate challenge may not come from tariffs or immigration, but from weakening consumer sentiment and changing bond market dynamics.
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- https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/05/oxford-warns-of-canadian-recession-says-immigration-slowdown-and-tariffs-to-blame/