Canada’s riskiest housing markets
CMHC says Toronto’s mortgage arrears have more than quadrupled as renewal shocks hit highly leveraged buyers.
Toronto’s mortgage arrears have more than quadrupled from post‑pandemic lows – and the riskiest pockets are exactly where debt is highest and equity cushions are thinnest.
CMHC says that higher payments are visibly squeezing savings, discretionary spending and credit behaviour.
CMHC’s modelling, using Equifax, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada data, shows mortgage arrears rates rising moderately nationwide from late 2025 to late 2026, with clear outliers.
Delinquency pressure there is expected to stay elevated through 2026.
- In Vancouver, high debt levels and softening resale market liquidity are pushing arrears higher, but at a slower pace than Toronto.
- Montréal’s delinquency risk remains stable and driven more by consumer credit stress than housing.
- Calgary faces moderate risk;
- Edmonton is more vulnerable because of labour‑market sensitivity.
- Ottawa, Winnipeg and Halifax show smaller arrears increases shaped by local credit use and economic conditions.
CMHC stresses that the arrears story is as much about borrower type as geography.
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